The Mid-Propensity Voter: A Strategic Opportunity for 2026

This research was featured in POLITICO DC Playbook on May 29, 2025.

For the past few weeks, J.L. Partners have been asking members of the public how likely they are to vote in the 2026 midterms. We collected a nationally representative sample of 3,041 registered voters across several polls that fielded throughout April 2025. MPVs make up a sample of 564, Trump MPVs 229. Quotas were added to ensure representative data on region, 2024 presidential vote, partisan identity, age, gender, ethnicity, education, and residential density, and the data was weighted back to the population using the same variables. The data has revealed a key demographic with outsized influence in midterms: the Mid-Propensity Voter (MPV).

Who are the MPVs?

MPVs are those individuals who rated their likelihood of voting between 4 and 7 on a 10-point scale.  They make up one-fifth (20%) of possible voters, meaning they have the potential to be a scale-tipping demographic – depending on campaigns’ abilities to overcome their apathy and mobilize them to polls. 

Political identity & behavior

MPVs are dispersed across the political spectrum, with the largest portion (42%) identifying as ‘Independent’ and/or ‘Unaffiliated’. Their voting history is equally varied, with similar portions voting for Trump in 2024 (36%) versus Harris (32%), and almost a third (29%) not voting at all in the 2024 elections. 

The 2026 challenge: Mobilizing Trump MPVs

These ‘Trump MPVs’ pose an interesting group: they saw their preferred candidate win in 2024, and now, despite the scale-tipping potential of the 2026 midterms, they lack motivation to contribute their vote again. They haven’t changed their allegiances; the majority (64%) say they would vote for the Republican candidate again if the 2026 midterms were held tomorrow. Nor is it due to policy alienation—their priorities (economy, immigration, healthcare) align closely with the general public. 

Instead, the challenge lies in what will motivate Trump MPVs to get out to the polls. While their policy priorities don’t set them apart from the general public, their GOP voting motivations do. 

While general MPVs cite supporting Trump’s current agenda and enabling senior appointments as top reasons to vote GOP in 2026, Trump MPVs are uniquely driven by a different factor: ensuring a Republican wins the presidency in 2028. This future-oriented priority sets them apart from other MPVs, and the one to capitalize upon in order to mobilize Trump MPVs to the polls. 

Other motivating arguments for GOP voting include a positive impression of Republican Congressmen, and, like the MPVs as a whole, a desire to see representative support Trump’s agenda for another two years. 

MPVs also spoke on what wouldn’t be effective in convincing them to mobilize around GOP candidates in the midterms. The majority are either apathetic or actively negative on the persuasive power of Trump’s ability to appoint judges and cabinet members, and while they want to see a 2028 victory for Republicans, they don’t want to see Trump on the ballot for that victory. This presents a focused messaging route for Trump MPVs: one that focuses on the future of Trump’s agenda and the Republican party, but not necessarily on Trump himself. 

Targeting Trump MPVs

Effective outreach must account for the demographics of MPVs and Trump MPVs specifically. Compared to 2024 Trump voters overall, Trump MPVs are disproportionately young (18-29) and Black. Reaching these demographics with the messaging that motivates them to vote could be key in a 2026 landscape that is crowded with contentious races. 

Working out how to reach these voters and starting now is crucial to bringing them over the line in your district. As the most accurate pollster of 2024, and having mobilized exactly this type of voter to produce the biggest swing in a ballot initiative in the country with Ohio’s Issue One, we can help you:

  • Understand their deep-held motivations and views on America and politics

  • Model and map these voters on the voter file

  • Work out what the key messages are to get them to vote in 2026

  • Assess what they listen to and where they get their news from - and how you can insert yourself in that narrative

  • Test your candidate or candidacy with this audience

  • Create and develop the best specific issue campaigns to mobilize their support

Get in touch by contacting James Johnson (jjohnson@jlpartners.com) or Caroline Mulvaney (cmulvaney@jlpartners.com).