Polling of likely voters in the 2024 presidential election in Pennsylvania, for DailyMail.com.

J.L. Partners polled a representative sample of 800 likely Pennsylvania voters.

• Fieldwork dates of 5th to 8th October 2024

• For voting intention questions, the sample size is 800, with a sample breakdown of:

  • Live landline call for 132 responses (17%)

  • Live cell call for 308 responses (39%)

  • Text-to-web for 160 responses (20%)

  • Online panel for 200 responses (25%)

• Respondents contacted via landline or cell were selected from a stratified random sample of likely voters from a state voter file; online panel respondents were contacted via a marketplace of online panels

• Data was quota’d and weighted to: gender, age, education, party registration, ethnicity, 2020 vote, and region

• Quota and weighting targets are derived from US Census Data and a state voter file appended with consumer data to accurately reflect the demographics of likely general election voters

• Survey length of 10 mins for panel, 5 mins for other data sources

• Margin of error: 3.5%

In addition to this margin of sampling error, polls are subject to a range of non-sampling errors, such as coverage error and nonresponse error.

Tables (voting intention): Download

Story: Trump and Harris are tied in Pennsylvania: Daily Mail poll finds a dead heat in the state that will likely decide the 2024 election